Wednesday, 17 February 2016

US presidential update: In which Jeb! gets a gun

President Obama says that Donald Trump won't get into the White House because it is a serious job. But the Republic voters of South Carolina still seem set to make the New York property developer their top choice. The latest batch of polls, including some taken after Saturday's debate when he appeared to have something of a meltdown, give Trump a commanding lead.

PP Politics had:

Trump 35%
Rubio 18%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 10%
Carson 7%
Bush 7%

There is still time for movement before the vote on Saturday and Jeb! Bush is going after Second Amendment voters by tweeting a picture of a personalised hand gun - something that has outraged many.

The most interesting number in the PP poll is that Marco Rubio appears to have refound his form and could take second place. Whether he beats Ted Cruz or not, he seems well ahead of the rest of the establishment candidates. If that is the result that emerges from Saturday then my 'Buy Bushes' advice might have come a cropper.


In other news, the President has said he will be nominating a new Supreme Court Justice and that this person will be indisputably qualified for the seat. So my guess is that he will pick a comparative moderate and he will portray any Republican senator who tries to delay confirmation as simply playing politics.

Best quote on the issue comes from Senator Elizabeth Warren (herself mentioned as a possible nominee, but hardly in the moderate mould):
Article II Section 2 of the Constitution says the President of the United States nominates justices to the Supreme Court, with the advice and consent of the Senate. I can't find a clause that says "...except when there's a year left in the term of a Democratic President."

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