Sunday, 21 February 2016

Bernie down. Bush out. Boris for Out.

Bernie Sanders lost the Nevada democratic caucuses by just over 5%. According to Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight.com, if Sanders and Hillary Clinton has been tied nationally, he would have expected Clinton to win Nevada by about 3%. So Sanders is down on that, but not by a huge amount.

In among the overall result, it is estimated that Sanders did better among hispanic Americans than predicted but even worse among black Americans than previous estimates.

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Sorry for the prediction that Jeb! Bush would be the last establishment Republican standing. He won just 7% of the vote in South Carolina and came in a virtual tie with John Kasich and Ben Carson. He was miles behind Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, who each managed around 22% and even further behind the winner Donald Trump. Before the dust was settled, Bush called it a day.

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When a presidential candidate gives up, they suspend their campaign rather than formally ending it. This is because if they end it they have to pay back their donors, whereas if they suspend it then (at least in theory) they can come back. Semantics, but financially very important.

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Boris has announced that he will be joining the Leave campaign in the EU referendum. The way that the media have reacted, you can be sure that the entire focus from now until June 23rd is going to be on Boris vs Dave. Non-Tories may as well take the next four months off for all the chance they will have of any media appearances.

I also think the chances of a decent debate featuring the leaders of each side (assuming they are Boris and Dave) are now virtually non-existent. The PM will put forward a surrogate and I fear Boris will wipe the floor with them.

Boris' decision indicates that he thinks Leave can win and that he wants to play the short game when it comes to leadership of his party.

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