Monday, 30 November 2009

What St Austell Bay means for Cornwall (clue: lots more Lib Dems)

Back in the days when the BBC covered by-elections properly, a standing feature of any coverage would include Peter Snow producing a map of the UK showing what the result would mean for UK politics nationwide. One particular highlight was the result of the Ribble Valley by-election when the entire country went Lib Dem gold except for a tiny portion of East Anglia. John Major would have been the only Tory MP to survive the onslaught.

Following the Lib Dem win in St Austell Bay last Thursday, I've done the same thing for Cornwall Council.

Based on a uniform swing of 13.46% from Conservatives to Lib Dems (and with Independents and others holding their own), the result in Cornwall would be:

Conservatives 9 seats (down 41)
Liberal Democrats 80 seats (up 42)
Independents 31 seats (down 1)
Mebyon Kernow 2 seats (down 1)
Others 1 seat (up 1)

The only Conservatives to hold their seats would be Joan Symons, Scott Mann, John Dyer, John Fitter, Neil Hatton, Liz Penhaligon, Armand Toms, Roger Harding and Pat Lamshead.

More immediately, the Lib Dems would also take all six of the Parliamentary seats in next year's General Election.

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