The detailed figures of the weekend's ICM poll have been posted by Mike Smithson on Political Betting. Mike targets the fact that Harriet Harman has very strong support amongst women. And bears....
What Mike appears not to notice is the massive dislike that men have for Harman and, perhaps more important, the intense diversity between the way the genders view Miliband. The Foreign Secretary polls 28% among men when asked who they would most like to see replace Brown, but just 13% among women. That 28% figure is the strongest showing of all the subsets shown. But Jack Straw polls stronger over all because his 25% male support only drops a point among women.
What is it that women hate about Miliband. I presume it's the geekiness. But ideas please.
For all that people go on about Harman's winning of the Deputy Leadership - and it was a very great achievement - I really can't see the massed ranks of the Labour membership and unions letting her loose on the country as a whole. Particularly the MPs who hold a third of the votes. They've met her, after all.
Miliband only polls a point less than Harman among women but a whopping 24 higher among men. Put those figures together and I really cannot see Harman winning.